Finding ways to manage GHG emissions is one of the most important long-term challenges facing society. The 2007 assessment by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for example, confirmed, now with near certainty, that man-made climate change is happening. It also concluded that GHG emissions – from energy, agriculture and deforestation – need to peak within 10–20 years and then fall substantially to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change levels.
In Scramble, this does not happen. Government policies are too little, too late. There is no effective framework for managing GHGs. As a result, CO2 and other GHG emissions rise steadily until around 2040. By 2050, GHG emissions are heading towards concentration levels in the atmosphere far above the levels that scientists indicate are safe.
In Blueprints, local and national governments introduce new standards, taxes and other policies to change behaviour, and improve both the energy efficiency and CO2 performance of buildings, vehicles and transport fuels. Eventually, politicians agree harmonised policies. Emission trading systems gain international acceptance and spread, putting an internationally recognised price on GHG emissions that accelerates innovation. As a result, vehicle fuel efficiency jumps significantly. Electric cars make a breakthrough after 2030. And the use of CO2 capture and storage at industrial sites takes off – something that proves essential for managing CO2 emissions. By 2020, CO2 emissions stop rising and then start to fall gradually. By 2050, GHG levels in “Blueprints” are on track to stabilise at levels in the atmosphere far lower than in “Scramble”. But “Blueprints” also makes the scale of the climate change challenge clear. Even with these wide-ranging and rapid changes – and reductions in emissions of other GHGs like methane from agriculture – atmospheric concentrations of GHGs in a “Blueprints” world still stabilise at levels higher than the 450 parts per million that scientists are currently calling for.
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