Two future energy scenarios

So, how will the world respond to the challenge? Shell’s Strategic Energy Scenarios describe two routes the energy system could take between now and 2050.

The Scramble scenario is a world of intense competition between individual countries, which rush to secure more energy for themselves. Political responses to the twin crises of the energy squeeze and climate change are often knee-jerk and severe, leading to price spikes, periods of economic slowdown and increasing turbulence.

Our Blueprints scenario is disorderly at first, as local initiatives result in a patchwork of different policies and approaches to deal with the challenges of economic development, energy security and climate change. These efforts become harmonised relatively quickly, as individual initiatives succeed and others adopt them more widely. A global policy framework – and with it a global cost of emitting CO₂ – emerges that spurs innovation, increases energy efficiency, limits the impact of rising energy demand and global warming, and helps maintain steady economic growth.

In both scenarios, energy use grows rapidly, though quicker in Scramble. No single energy source or technology can both meet demand and reduce CO₂ emissions. Instead more of everything is needed. Fossil fuels continue to provide more than half our global energy, though a far smaller share than the more than 80% of total energy supply that they represent today.

But there are important differences. In Blueprints, wind and solar power grow strongly after 2030. While coal use also rises steadily, by 2050, CO₂ from power plants is being captured and stored on a large scale. In the transport sector, less CO₂-intensive biofuels increase strongly, and after 2030 highly efficient electric cars reduce the demand for liquid fuels.