Will the world’s vehicles be running on liquid fuels or electricity in 2050? The likeliest answer is: a lot of both. With more than a billion extra vehicles expected on the road (more than double the total today), there will be room and need for a range of different energy sources for transportation. The “Blueprints” scenario, for example, envisages internal combustion engines burning liquid fuels (petrol, diesel and biofuels) continuing to provide the majority of transportation energy in 2050. In this scenario, plug-in hybrid, fully electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles eventually overcome their current technical and cost barriers. The first of these take off after 2020. It is possible that different combinations of fuels and vehicles will be adopted in different regions, depending on local conditions.
Engine and vehicle makers will have a critical role to play in building this more diverse transport future. For our part, we are working on the petrol and diesel formulations needed for future generations of advanced internal combustion engines, with partners like Ferrari and Volkswagen. We are working on advanced biofuels (see Biofuels). And we have six demonstration refuelling stations for hydrogen fuel-cell powered vehicles in Asia, Europe, and North America.
