Efforts to manage greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be speeded up despite the recession. We remain determined to help.
A GROWING CHALLENGE
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed in 2007 that, to reduce the risk of global temperatures rising dangerously, emissions of greenhouse gases need to peak in the next 10–20 years and then fall substantially. It said concentrations of greenhouse gases eventually needed to stabilise at 450 parts per million (ppm) or below.
Our “Blueprints” scenario demonstrates the scale of that challenge. In it, governments aggressively promote fuel efficiency, lower CO2 fuels and CCS. An internationally recognised price for emitting GHGs emerges. As a result, energy efficiency improves twice as fast as it has ever done before. By 2050, 90% of all coal-fired and gas-fired power stations in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (and 50% of those in today’s developing world) are equipped with CCS.
In this scenario, approximately 50% of the world’s power is produced from renewable energy. But even this amount of change (combined with rapid reductions in the emissions of other GHGs like methane from agriculture) isn’t enough to bring greenhouse gas levels down as fast as the IPCC scientists are calling for. This was confirmed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Programme on the Science and Policy of Global Change. At our request, MIT ran our scenarios through its latest energy and climate change model.
Their work emphasised the importance of annual GHG emissions falling within the next 10–15 years. It made clear how critical the next 5–10 years are for developing the technologies and policies the new energy system will need. MIT estimated that waiting out the current recession before making a big policy and technology push would mean 30 ppm of greenhouse gases more in the atmosphere in 2100.
There is much to be gained from channelling government spending in response to the recession towards energy projects. Investing in CCS, renewables and other clean energy technologies would generate employment in the short term, and help address the three hard truths in the longer term. So would upgrading energy infrastructure, particularly improving power grids so that they can handle more and a wider range of energy supplies.
